Markets are doing well but the US elections might have an impact
The elections in the US will take place on November 5, and there is no clear winner at this stage. The difference between the two candidates is huge and their policies will change how things are going to develop worldwide. Currently the equity markets are doing very well, but the bond market is not. The […]
Government policy does matter
If you have ever wondered what impact government policy can have on your investments, stop wondering and look at China. The Hang Seng index gained 25% in one week after the Chinese government said they would introduce stimulus measures and not stop until the economy was back on a strong growth trajectory. With a 29% […]
The markets have spoken
Just last week we talked about the potential impact of lower interest rates on the markets and now, seven days later, we have already seen some interesting developments. We mentioned that over all, lower interest rates would be positive for shares and bonds, and that bonds would be the better medium-term performer if the USA […]
The wait is over, interest rates have been cut.
We have been waiting for this moment for a long time. The interest rate in the US was lowered by 0.5% last Wednesday and South Africa followed with a 0.25% cut. As we have mentioned before, this move signals a cycle that will see rates coming down, supporting bond and equity prices. The loser in […]
Gyrating markets and the 2-pot system
The markets have been gyrating like a Moroccan belly dancer in the casbah. It feels like we are going in circles but we have to admit that this is not unexpected. Three things are causing this volatility: the unpredictability of the outcome of the US election now that Biden is no longer in the picture; […]
Why consumer confidence matters
On a recent trip to the Goegab Nature Reserve outside Springbok, we were sitting outside around our crackling fire. Through the Namaqualand quiver trees we could see the sun sinking into the horizon while the full moon was rising behind us. Ice clinked in our glasses and the smell of grilling lamb chops filled the […]
Markets are on fire!
If you happened to blink, you would have missed the sharp fall and subsequent spike in equity and bond prices over the past few weeks. It is clear now that the panic caused by the Japanese carry trade on August 5th was a fantastic buying opportunity for those investors who are not fully invested yet. […]
What is more important, the present or the future?
Can you still remember those times when you did something wrong and your mother said, “Go to your room and wait for your father to come home!”. The worst part was the anticipation. You had no idea what was going to happen and it was impossible to not feel anxious. Sometimes you were lucky and […]
Mrs. Watanabe is back
The S&P 500 fell 2.997% on Monday 5 August, the worst day for the US stock market since September 2022 and 12th daily decline >1% this year. The graph shows the history of large down days since 1928 in the USA. It is clear that one-day drawdowns in the equity markets are not uncommon, in […]
Market volatility should be an Olympic sport
Watching the Olympics is exciting , and so can watching the current market volatility be. One of the biggest companies in the world, Nvidia, had the biggest one-day gain in history last week. It went up 12.8% or $330 billion in a single day. Just to put this into context, Naspers is worth $34 billion. […]