We are experiencing a remarkably quiet period in the investment world. That is not to say that things are not happening, it is just that nothing new is happening. We are happy to watch as Naspers, driven by Tencent, goes higher; Goldminers like Anglogold stay elevated and even MTN is recovering from a bad patch. The rand is hovering at around R18 to the US$ and interest rates are coming down slowly. Markets have become desensitized to the geopolitical tensions in the world and fresh news from the Ukraine and Gaza wars has very little impact on investor sentiment. Not even the tariff tirades of Donald Trump can depress shares for too long and we are still enjoying record highs around the world.
So what will upset the applecart? The short answer is that we don’t know, but something always comes along. Over the medium to longer term two potential risks lie in higher inflation caused by the new trade tariffs introduced by the USA, and the actual benefits created by Artificial Intelligence. We have seen a remarkable rise in the share price of big tech companies in the US on the back of their involvement in AI; but if they cannot fulfil the lofty profit expectations, we will see that sector of the market deflate quite rapidly.
This period of calm is ideal to make small adjustments to your investments and other personal matters. Make sure you take a critical look at your longer-term investment plan and adjust if necessary. Make sure your estate planning is up to date and that your last will and testament still reflects your wishes. Stop procrastinating and book your annual medical checkup, dentist appointment or even your prescribed car service. And don’t forget the tedious appointment with SARS. You have to submit your 2025 tax return about now.